Speculative scenario model · not an empirical forecast

AI Industry Revenue, Profit & Job-Displacement

Revenue grows off a maturing base growth rate. Each year's revenue displaces jobs; displaced workers are partly reabsorbed and partly accumulate as net AI-driven unemployment. Total unemployment (baseline + AI-driven) depresses consumer spending, which drags on next year's revenue growth — a one-year lag, not a circular loop. A scenario ceiling caps total unemployment so the model can't imply >100% joblessness.

Revenue, Profit & Unemployment Over Time

AI industry revenue ($B) Annual profit ($B) Total unemployment rate (%) Scenario ceiling

Scenario Presets — Max Total Unemployment Ceiling

Time Horizon

Start year 2025

First projected year.

Number of years 16

Projection horizon.

AI Industry Revenue

Starting revenue $200B

Illustrative global AI industry revenue base, Year 1.

Starting base growth rate 40%

Growth rate before any feedback drag, Year 1.

Growth rate decay 2.0 pp/yr

Annual step-down in base growth as the market matures.

Floor base growth rate 6%

Base growth rate never decays below this floor.

Job Displacement

Jobs displaced per $1B revenue 0.15 M

Million jobs automated per $1B of AI revenue booked that year.

Reabsorption rate 15%

Share of accumulated net AI-unemployed who find new work each year.

Total labor force 170 M

Labor force the displacement pool is measured against.

Baseline unemployment rate 4%

Structural/frictional unemployment unrelated to AI.

Macro Feedback

Consumer spending elasticity 0.60x

% decline in consumer spending per 1pp rise in total unemployment above baseline.

Feedback drag sensitivity 0.50x

Points AI revenue growth falls per 1% spending decline, applied with a 1-year lag.

Max total unemployment (ceiling) 35%

Sanity cap — even in this severe scenario, total unemployment can't exceed this.

Profitability

Starting profit margin 12%

Industry-wide margin in Year 1 (heavy compute/infra capex).

Margin expansion per year 1.5 pp/yr

Assumed annual margin improvement as the industry scales.

Margin cap 35%

Maximum profit margin the model allows.

Summary

Revenue CAGR (full period)

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Peak annual profit

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Final net AI-driven unemployed

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Final total unemployment rate

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How to read this: Column-D-style feedback drag applies the prior year's consumer-spending decline to the current year's growth rate — a one-year lag, avoiding a circular reference. Net AI-driven unemployment nets new displacement against reabsorption into other work each year, capped by the scenario ceiling above. This is a speculative scenario model, not an empirical forecast — there's no published dataset cleanly mapping AI revenue to jobs displaced; the linking multipliers are illustrative judgment calls. Treat outputs as directional, stress-testable logic, not a prediction.